And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. Everss PARG is just +1, suggesting perceptions of him are strongly dependent on partisanship. According to the latest figures, taken from surveys conducted among 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, 36 percent of Badger State voters approved of his job performance, 51 percent disapproved and 13 percent had no opinion. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . Meanwhile, Republican U.S. Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. . Share: Listen Download. Ronald Reagan, the nation's 40th president, became one of the nation's most revered public figures in recent years, a distinct turnabout from the average job approval ratings he received while in office between 1981 and 1989. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. and Biden approval rating unchanged. Announces Mary Ellen Stanek as Board Chairwoman and adds Dr. Joan Prince and Charles Harvey to Board of Directors, Tiffany Tardy Named New Executive Director of MPS Foundation, DWD Announces Appointments of Jeremy Simon as Assistant Deputy Secretary, Arielle Exner as Legislative Liaison. Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. Though Johnson's 37% approval rating in the poll is dismal, it is actually slightlyhigher than in other recent polling. And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson. Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. . Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Steve Sisolak of Nevada also has a distinct personal brand that could help him weather a tough reelection campaign in purple Nevada. That said, they are all in very safe states, so they shouldnt be in any danger. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. Accordingly, the floor is 40%. Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. Today, the Democrat wins, he said. We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). Johnsons decline in popularity since 2019 has occurred among almost all groups. But what they missed was that she could create a sincere connection with those working-class voters in rural areas and in Democratic-rich Dane [County] and Milwaukee.. But the decline hasnt been even across groups. Several conservatives involved in the state argued that Johnson casting himself as foe of Biden and the national Democratic brand could help shore up his intraparty standing. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Michels has quickly jumped to the lead in the Republican primary, with 27% of the vote versus 26% for Kleefisch, 10% for former Marine Kevin Nicholson, and 3% for Rep. Timothy Ramthun. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. Toward the bottom of the list are five governors running for reelection whose approval ratings dont look as strong as they seem after taking partisan lean into account. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. But a lot has changed in the last few months. At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Larry Hogan of Maryland. Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. Phil Scott has not yet announced whether he is running, but it is expected that he will, as of May 12, 2022. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). Wednesday, August 17, 2022, 2:25pm. Dan McKees mediocre +2 net approval rating, the fact that he is running for the office for the first time (he became governor only because he was the lieutenant governor when the old governor resigned), the pro-Republican national mood and Rhode Islands elasticity. As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs whether to run again, his embrace of Trump's anti-democratic campaign to overturn the election results already has angered some mainstream Republican allies, and is poised As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs future, Trump ties take a toll @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for the purposes of these calculations. The poll is hardly an outlier. By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. We want to hear from you. Johnsons rating has risen from plus 50 six years ago to plus 57 with Republicans; from plus 33 to plus 46 with self-identified conservatives; from plus 15 to plus 26 with born-again Protestants; and from plus 2 to plus 9 with white noncollege men. Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. Meanwhile, super PACs for both sides of the race are already pouring millions of dollars into Wisconsin, Forbes reported. Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. Cant fix stupid or true believers. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. Can we marry dogs? Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Biden's approval rating rises to 45% from 36% in July. to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Condition: --. He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). Become a member for $9/month. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. Eli Lilly CEO announces it will cap out-of-pocket costs for its insulin at $35, GOP bill would fund security grants for 'pregnancy centers' only if they oppose abortion, House Republicans vote for repeal of climate-related investment regulations, Rep. James Comer criticizes U.S. attorney for not investigating Biden's dead son, House GOP members interrogate Biden administration efforts to address environmental racism, Fact check: No, the Biden administration is not trying to ban gas stoves. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. ), Senators like Manchin and McConnell are exceptions, though. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive,Three years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote and hybrid work are as popular as ever. Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. Price: US $0.99. But what we cant be as confident about is whether its reversible.. He ran behind the other three, with 44% versus 46% for Barnes, 43% versus 45% for Godlewski and 43% versus 44% for Nelson. MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. Kelly, on the other hand, does have a brand distinct from the national Democratic Party, but its an open question whether she can get enough Kansas Republicans who approve of her to take the extra step and vote for her as well. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Nearly six years ago, national Republicans had largely written off Johnsons eventually successful re-election campaign as Morning Consult surveys showed 45 percent of Wisconsin voters approved of his job performance, 33 percent disapproved and 22 percent had no opinion. That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). In the head-to-head matchups for U.S. The reelection races of Sens. Bill Clinton 1993-2001. He backed a decision by Oshkosh Defense a large Wisconsin-based manufacturing company and one of his largest campaign funders to locate over 1,000 jobs in Spartanburg, South Carolina, instead of his state. In the United States, presidential job approval ratings were first conducted by George Gallup (estimated to be 1937) to gauge public support for the president of the United States during their term. How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. . Results from the most recent update. Democratic President Joe Biden was also underwater in the latest poll, with just 40% approving of him and 57% disapproving. Scribd is the world's largest social reading and publishing site. Voters do not. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. 2023 CNBC LLC. Last week, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) reneged on his pledge to step down after two terms and announced he would seek re-election.. But he also stood to benefit from a difficult political climate for Democrats, reflected in President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings. They might have been in real danger of losing their seats in 2022, but thankfully for Democrats, both are retiring. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. Democratic Gov. In a June 2022 poll, 37% of voters viewed the senator favorably and 46% viewed . Senator Ron Johnson against his top challengers, which show Johnson a bit behind three of the four Democratic challengers, and a similar matchup of incumbent Democratic Gov. ", Johnson has also refused to fight to locate jobs in the United States instead of abroad. Sign-in to take full advantage of your membership, including an ad-free website and improved browsing experience. One is that it illustrates how Johnson has come back from poor ratings before. Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. A 2001 industry survey conducted by ``Information Security,'' released on October 16, indicated that out of 2,100 respondents, an overwhelming 89% experienced virus, worms, or trojan breeches in the last three months. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. But Kleefisch did the best of the Republicans in thehead-to-head matchup against Evers, with 43% of the vote versus 47% for Evers. This is less true for governors, however. This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. Their four most vulnerable incumbents this fall Sens. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. All rights reserved. Approval Ratings (130) He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. WISN host Adrienne Pederson grilled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) about his toxic brand and his low approval ratings.In an interview on Sunday, Pederson asked Johnson how he planned to win re-election . These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. The state is closely divided in its partisan affiliation- 29% say they're Democrats, 31% say they're Republicans, and 39% say they're [] Governors running for reelection in swing states also have some very different PARGs that explain why some of them are vulnerable this year, while others probably dont have anything to worry about. Similar to a senators PARS score, a governors PARG score can also help us get a better sense of which governors running for reelection in 2022 are best equipped to swim against the partisan tide of their states. He has been endorsed by well-known political figures including Sens. But as Franklin notes, Johnsons growing salience for these voters could help Democratic turnout. 56% of independent voters in . All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. Libertarian Seth Cordell and independent . House Republicans introduce bill to declare AR-15-style assault rifle US 'national Report finds right-wing radicals responsible for all extremist-related murders in 2022. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . A spokesperson for Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., says he was unaware of an exchange between his staff and that of Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points.

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