About The Author. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Its crazy. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. List of election bellwether counties in the United States The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Its horrible. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Logistically, its a disaster. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. We believe that there are two main reasons. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. I dont watch TV. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. He says hell vote for Trump. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Jim Hoft. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. He didnt vote in 2016 either. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. But according to the. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. I trust the system implicitly, he said. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Two states have announced recounts. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Florida's I-4 corridor: Where presidents get picked We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. 2016 Trump. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. bellwether counties epoch times Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. Im not even sure what direction were going.. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. Its just not that great, Paul said. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election By Cara Ding. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Its too big. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Theyre scared. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. Your email address will not be published. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Fact check: Joe Biden won most votes ever and fewest counties - USA TODAY He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. 'I Should Start Voting'. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. It will cycle through. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Review: At Fall for Dance, Resilience Takes Center Stage Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. These 3 Virginia Congressional Races Could Be 'National Bellwether He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. I think its very political right now, honestly. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Will Ohio's Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable - The Epoch Times Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. With unfounded fraud claims swirling, red California county dumps Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Republican Gov. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. And its never going to come back.. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Ohio's Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether I hope.. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner.

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